LEADER GUIDE: Scenario Planning
What is Scenario-Based Planning?
Scenario planning differs from classic strategic planning in that it invokes the “story teller” in all of us as the primary driver toward building future organizational models. Strategic planning is far more process-based, and generally time-consuming than Scenario-Based Planning.
Scenario-Based Planning (60 minute exercise)
Before the Exercise:
Set-up the room using round tables, 6-7 seats to a table. Ensure each table has an easel and flip chart, several multi-colored pens and 20-30 sheets of blank 8.5×11 copier paper. Instruct the attendees to capture everything on flip charts – as the facilitator will need to use those flip charts to prepare meeting notes that will be circulated throughout the group.
Starting the Exercise:
Get everyone’s attention, and explain the process we will be using for the next 60 minutes or so. We will examine three potential scenarios for (FILL IN YOUR NEED HERE). Each of the scenarios will be examined using a similar approach:
- Table teams tell stories that describe the scenario using vivid, image and feeling-evoking language. What does it feel like? What does it look like? What emotions are present? What behaviors are being demonstrated?
- Each table team summarizes their “story” related to the scenario, and presenting their version of the story to the broader group.
- Facilitator captures “what’s common” about each of the stories, and the group works to create a single version of the scenario.
Timing for each scenario is as follows:
- Table team builds the components of the story: 5 minutes
- Table team summarizes their story: 3-5 minutes
- All table teams present to each other: 5 minutes
- Common story developed: 3-5 minutes
1st Scenario – Worst Case:
First, we’ll look at the worst-case scenario – now, don’t be afraid… It’s not like invoking the name “Voldemort” (to use a Harry Potter analogy) to look at the worst case scenario. Worst case scenarios RARELY happen – but, taking the time to look at them is valuable. It reinforces the fact that we’re VERY unlikely to experience anything close to the worst case, and for many, that’s a positive outcome of this exercise.
2nd Scenario – Best Case:
Next, the table teams will examine the components of the best possible scenario – which includes EVERYTHING that can go right, going right. It is just as unlikely an outcome as the worst case scenario, but going through the discussion of the best possible scenario is a very uplifting, positive experience. Taken to its extreme, participants start to see possibilities that previously were seemingly impossible.
3rd Scenario – Most Preferred Case:
Finally, after examining both the worst and best case scenarios, the group will develop the most desirable case scenario. Saving this scenario for last is important, and having it follow the best case scenario is vital. Why? Because by the time the group starts working on the 3rd scenario, they are energized and in a positive frame of mind. As such, the group usually will push themselves into a more positive future direction – in a more unified, energetic manner.
The 3rd scenario, more than the other three, needs to be described in extremely tangible terms – with as much descriptive language as possible. The group should be able to nearly touch, taste, feel, etc. the most preferred case scenario – as the outcome from this process will be used as the foundation for the more traditional planning efforts that are needed to describe goals, objectives, actions and measures.
After the Exercise:
All flip charts need to be collected, and the group needs to be told to begin thinking about the parts of the most preferred scenario that are most important to do well. Those items will be prioritized and “worked” more fully by using the “driving / restraining forces” tool.
